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Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Gartner Says 80 Percent of Active Internet Users Will Have A ``Second Life'' in the Virtual World by the End of 2011
This via Forbes.com (brought to my attention through this tweet by twitter contact Gerrit Visser):
"By the end of 2011, 80 percent of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a "second life," but not necessarily in Second Life, according to Gartner, Inc.
Gartner analysts are examining the hype and reality around virtual worlds during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2007: Emerging Trends, being held here through April 26. Gartner's advice to enterprise clients is that this is a trend that they should investigate and experiment with, but limit substantial financial investments until the environments stabilize and mature."
Gartner has apparently identified five laws for companies participating in the virtual world. Bullet points (abbreviated) are:
First Law: Virtual worlds are not games, but neither are they a parallel universe (yet). The initial reaction of many business leaders when faced with virtual worlds is to dismiss them as a mere "game" of no benefit to the enterprise and something to be banned for wasting compute resources and time. Many of those that see beyond the gaming elements immediately veer toward questions such as "How do we exploit this as a sales channel?" This reaction is equally incorrect and potentially even more damaging to the enterprise.
Second Law: Behind every avatar is a real person. Gartner said people can't be fooled by the fantasy elements in the virtual world.
Third Law: Be relevant and add value. Many commercial companies have established a virtual world presence, but none have converted it into an effective, profitable sales channel.
Fourth Law: Understand and contain the downside. Enterprises face serious questions, such as "Could activities in the virtual world undermine or influence my organization/brand in the real world?"
Fifth Law: This is a long haul. Today's multiplicity of virtual environments has developed through the convergence of social networking, simulation and online gaming. There are many new entrants, whose stability and scalability are not yet established. There is significant probability that, over time, market pressures will lead to a merging of current virtual worlds into a smaller number of open-sourced environments that support the free transfer of assets and avatars from one to another with the use of a single, universal client."
The article closes with ...
Gartner recommends that enterprises should experiment with virtual worlds, but not plan massive projects, and look for community benefits rather than commerce. "Find enthusiasts within your enterprise and support them. Understand the implications for access to open virtual platforms from within the enterprise and the risks involved," Mr. Prentice said. "Despite the concerns within companies, don't ignore this trend. They will have a significant impact on your enterprise during the next five years."
"By the end of 2011, 80 percent of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a "second life," but not necessarily in Second Life, according to Gartner, Inc.
Gartner analysts are examining the hype and reality around virtual worlds during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2007: Emerging Trends, being held here through April 26. Gartner's advice to enterprise clients is that this is a trend that they should investigate and experiment with, but limit substantial financial investments until the environments stabilize and mature."
Gartner has apparently identified five laws for companies participating in the virtual world. Bullet points (abbreviated) are:
First Law: Virtual worlds are not games, but neither are they a parallel universe (yet). The initial reaction of many business leaders when faced with virtual worlds is to dismiss them as a mere "game" of no benefit to the enterprise and something to be banned for wasting compute resources and time. Many of those that see beyond the gaming elements immediately veer toward questions such as "How do we exploit this as a sales channel?" This reaction is equally incorrect and potentially even more damaging to the enterprise.
Second Law: Behind every avatar is a real person. Gartner said people can't be fooled by the fantasy elements in the virtual world.
Third Law: Be relevant and add value. Many commercial companies have established a virtual world presence, but none have converted it into an effective, profitable sales channel.
Fourth Law: Understand and contain the downside. Enterprises face serious questions, such as "Could activities in the virtual world undermine or influence my organization/brand in the real world?"
Fifth Law: This is a long haul. Today's multiplicity of virtual environments has developed through the convergence of social networking, simulation and online gaming. There are many new entrants, whose stability and scalability are not yet established. There is significant probability that, over time, market pressures will lead to a merging of current virtual worlds into a smaller number of open-sourced environments that support the free transfer of assets and avatars from one to another with the use of a single, universal client."
The article closes with ...
Gartner recommends that enterprises should experiment with virtual worlds, but not plan massive projects, and look for community benefits rather than commerce. "Find enthusiasts within your enterprise and support them. Understand the implications for access to open virtual platforms from within the enterprise and the risks involved," Mr. Prentice said. "Despite the concerns within companies, don't ignore this trend. They will have a significant impact on your enterprise during the next five years."
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